[10NL] KK...Overpair on wet flop against LAGG.

Villain is 31/28/11 (3bet) over 188 hands. FT3B 75%. FTCB 43%.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $10.00
SB: $12.97
BB: $14.99
UTG: $8.17
MP: $10.15
Hero (CO): $10.00

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has K K

fold, MP raises to $0.30, Hero raises to $0.90, fold, fold, fold, MP calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.95, 2 players) 8 T 9
MP checks, Hero bets $1.40, MP raises to $9.25 and is all-in, Hero ???


www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: Ts9s8c
Equity Win Tie
MP3 72.39% 71.81% 0.58% { QQ-88, QJs, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, QJo }
CO 27.61% 27.03% 0.58% { KhKc }

With villain's range we have 28% equity, we need 38% to make the call. Is it a fold?

Yes.

won't a Lag reraise pre with AK and is he calling pre with QJo ?. He may be calling with a lot more suited connectors as well.

Originally Posted by Renton

I don't understand this? It's not like our hand is invulnerable here; on such a wet board surely we get calls from worse hands/draws and we protect our hand at the same time. I mean, I can see the advantage in terms of pot control, but that's it.

It's hard to protect when you barely have 50% equity. Just check the flop, you'll get a big equity spike on many turns, and can easily fold to any bet on many other turns.

Yeah when you check the flop you give up some money to the weakest draws in his range, but really almost everything that continues to your cbet is flipping with you, and if he decides to semibluff raise with these hands along with his best made hands like twopair/straight/set, you end up being a big dog to his overall range and have to fold. You can exploit parts of this range easier by giving them a free card, IMO.

Also, the range you give him is very nitty, and you forgot two pair, we can better demonstrate the fuckedness of your situation by adding all of the other possible semibluffs he could have:

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: Ts9s8c
Equity Win Tie
MP2 44.10% 43.14% 0.97% { KhKc }
MP3 55.90% 54.93% 0.97% { QQ-77, QJs, J8s+, T7s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, AsQs, KsQs, AsJs, KsJs, AsTs, KsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, 6s5s, As4s, 5s4s, As3s, As2s }


So that's like your best case scenario.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: Ts9s8c
Equity Win Tie
MP2 61.91% 60.51% 1.40% { KhKc }
CO 38.09% 36.69% 1.40% { 22+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, 54s, AJo+, KQo }


You're only 61% vs his entire range on the flop. So checking doesn't really give up a lot of value vs it.

Originally Posted by Renton

Also, the range you give him is very nitty, and you forgot two pair, we can better demonstrate the fuckedness of your situation by adding all of the other possible semibluffs he could have:

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: Ts9s8c
Equity Win Tie
MP2 44.10% 43.14% 0.97% { KhKc }
MP3 55.90% 54.93% 0.97% { QQ-77, QJs, J8s+, T7s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, AsQs, KsQs, AsJs, KsJs, AsTs, KsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, 6s5s, As4s, 5s4s, As3s, As2s }


So that's like your best case scenario.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: Ts9s8c
Equity Win Tie
MP2 61.91% 60.51% 1.40% { KhKc }
CO 38.09% 36.69% 1.40% { 22+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, 54s, AJo+, KQo }


You're only 61% vs his entire range on the flop. So checking doesn't really give up a lot of value vs it.

I'm not very good at putting people on a range and it's something I am working on so I appreciate the time you took to post those ranges. Is it realistic to think that villain is raising and calling a 3bet OOP w/ suited two gappers? I was going to include all Axss as well but just wasn't sure if he would stack off w/ every NFD so that's a mistake on my part.

It's not unrealistic, but whether he can have those hands or not doesn't much affect the ev of checking vs betting, as all of those hands are 50/50 vs KK.

Cant say more. Fold now. As better ones said, b/f turn bricks , find turn fold on his donk

I think that he has set of something or straight. In my opinion he is very strong so it's better to go fold.

I cannot see how you can do anything except fold to the all in shove. Always tough to fold K's but making good folds is as valuable as making good calls.